1979 is rewritten in the Energy Market

In a world where the war in Ukraine has lowered the threshold for the use of force and has familiarized markets with the idea of protracted conflict, the question is no longer whether a single shock can be absorbed. Modern systems can absorb a shock, but they struggle to manage the simultaneous occurrence of multiple crises that unfold across regions, sectors, and balance sheets, altering expectations faster than natural flows can adapt. Insurance is repriced before cargoes move, capital is reallocated before supply changes, and shipping standards change before infrastructure is affected.

An initial limited crash pushed Brent to $80–100 a barrel, while a substantial disruption pushes it up to $120–130. A prolonged lockdown could catapult Brent to $150–200, with Bloomberg's historical elasticity (4% price increase for every 1% loss of supply) making these levels entirely realistic.

The energy shock is a strategic bet based on the Iranian leadership's targeting and the expectation that a brief conflict would avoid a protracted regional war. But the removal of the leadership does not automatically imply the collapse of the regime, especially when the basic security institutions remain intact. If the Iranian system withstands the blow, the center of gravity shifts from the military and energy fields to the political, especially in Washington, where rising prices and parliamentary pressure can test the viability of the strategy.

The LNG market in 2026–2030 is becoming fragmented, with Asian buyers in oil-indexed contracts facing increases of over 100%. With 20% of the world's LNG trapped behind the Straits, the natural shortage cannot be made up in the short term, as new US capacity requires 3–4 years to pay off. The question is no longer whether prices will rise, but whether the disruption will remain contained or develop into the most severe supply crisis in fifty years.

"Κυριακάτικη Κόντρα - Έντυπη Εκδοση -  Αρθρο -   Μάρτιος 8, 2026" 

- Selected parts translated in English from the original article in Greek.

- Republshed in Defense Point,   March 9, 2026

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